Home > Apple, Google, Small Things I Blow Out Of Proportion > Is iPhone 4 Killing Android’s Momentum?

Is iPhone 4 Killing Android’s Momentum?

Bill Palmer, head-fanboy of online magazine Beatweek, recently wrote an article for his magazine titled “iPhone 4 pre-order volume suggests Android momentum is over” that made my eyes bleed, and now I have to tear it apart.

Two things, for background:
One: Apple announced that there were 600,000 pre-orders for the upcoming iPhone 4.
Two: I’ve had the iPhone 4 for months, and it’s crapping awesome. So beautiful.
Three: I loves me some Apple products, as you all know. Some have called me a fanboy, but you know what? Fanboy doesn’t mean my brain cells have gone up like a bag of wet poprocks; I still function. My problem with Bill’s article isn’t the contention that iPhone 4 will make people care less about Android, it’s the called information he uses to support his view.

Bill says:

“The overwhelming first day volume strongly suggests that iPhone 4 will be by far Apple’s best selling iPhone model yet, and also suggests that its current 28% of the U.S. smartphone market is set to climb significantly as 2010 progresses.”

Probably it will increase, Bill, but you can’t tell that from this one datapoint; it could just represent pre-orders from existing iPhone users, which could mean zero marketshare increase. Hell, there could have been ten times more pre-orders without affecting the marketshare of the phone at all.

“consumers have been well aware for some time that a major new iPhone upgrade was coming and had thus likely been holding off planned iPhone purchases until that model surfaced. As such, iPhone sales in the second half of 2010 should easily be a whole number multiple larger than they were in the first half of 2010.”

Maybe, Bill, but you’re assuming that everyone waiting to see the iPhone 4 before deciding has chosen the iPhone 4. That may not be the case. Crap, Bill, the staggering pre-order volume could represent a limited-time catch-up of orders for those who have just made their decision to buy the iPhone 4 — which could be a spike that’s already over — or people ordering it as soon as possible because they know that, historically, if you don’t get the new Apple hotness on day one you get it on day goddamn 50, and they don’t want to be the only virgin at the orgy.

“Google attempted to sell the Android Nexus One via online ordering, and that online store failed […] Possible reasons offered by those defending the Android platform included the notion that mainstream consumers wanted to be able to touch, feel, and try out a smartphone before buying it. However, this theory has been disproven now that Apple has experimented with selling iPhone online to customers who have not yet had the chance to see or touch one at retail, and sales were such an overwhelming success that it immediately led to an online meltdown.”

GAAARARAAARARGGGGHHHHHH. Do you think before you linkbait, you bastard? Putting aside any consideration of how good the two platforms are, are you really making that comparison? Google is a search engine, and it was selling a phone for an OS most people have never even heard of, let alone actually seen or used. Also, who buys hardware from Google? Who even heard about the goddamn online store? Would you spend $600 on a phone running a completely unknown system? By contrast, Apple’s a retailer, and they’ve had an online store for years. That’s the whole point of Apple.com! And saying that Apple’s selling people a phone they’ve never seen in person is disingenuous at best, jackassery at worst. Millions have used iPhones, and love them. They’re just ordering a new, better version of what they’ve already purchased. It’s a completely different situation, you gigantic nimrod.

I know that you want and need to interpret everything as evidence of Apple’s pending global domination, because part of your career is Apple fansmanship. I get it. But, come on, you’re being insane. It’s one thing to read the tea leaves, but what you’re doing is masturbating furiously on them until you’re raw, then acting like the spray pattern of your semen has statistical meaning.

To sell the impact of that last joke, here’s a picture of Bill Palmer:

Will Android bend up the dominant player in the marketplace? Sadly, it probably will, and not because Android’s better: it’ll win for the reasons that Microsoft won on the desktop:  Google’s putting it everywhere. But even if Apple won and got a dominant marketshare globally, Android won’t go away completely, for two reasons:

One: Some people value openness over quality, and will choose Android on philosophical grounds.
Two: the average person is stupid, which means that a large percentage of the population will simply be unable to appreciate the genius of the iPhone, and continue to wrongly think that they’re idiotic flip-phones are good for anything other than a doorstop.

Bill Palmer, you make those of us who critically assess the tech landscape and choose Apple look bad. Hell, you make fanboys look bad. Stop it. Stop it now!

Shut up.

  1. Angelworks
    June 22, 2010 at 12:16 pm

    I think one thing that people are forgetting as well is Android is way bigger than Google. Its a completely open platform that can run on anything if a person or a vendor is willing to take the time to work on integration. One of the most interesting examples of this is Android running on an iPhone or Android running on a regular desktop PC (like the Android x86 site can show you how to do).

  2. JJT
    June 22, 2010 at 12:34 pm

    Ahhh, Mosspuppet, you finally hit on something that has driven me nuts about Mr. Palmer. For all of his iProselytizing, he is really basing his observations on data that can best be described as circumstantial. Aside from his blatant use of link-baiting tactics, I have always thought some of his observations to be way overblown. Presaging things based on pre-orders from a built-in *existing* audience is somewhat specious, at best.

    Overall, as an Android user, I do think that they will end up winning given the way they are trying to make Android ubiquitous, just, as you said, MS did with Windows. One can debate the merits of how one is better than the other, but I think each OS has their own unique advantages.

  3. Mike
    June 22, 2010 at 1:18 pm

    *end up

    But as usual, I love the article. I really can’t believe people write stories about single data points like this. What a buffoon.

  4. GG
    June 29, 2010 at 12:54 am

    Congrats! BeatWeak really do give fanboi’s a bad name. They live in their own world, so far up the proverbial, you can see their idiot-grinning faces reflected in his teeth every time Steve smiles. Android might be going the MS route—lowest common denominator, doesn’t have to work, as long as it sounds good, but iPhone doesn’t need this kind of supporter either.

  5. C
    September 10, 2011 at 7:54 am

    Palmer is a head all right… And giving head to Steve Jobs. He’d take it as a compliment. Android will evolve. Apple may not. After all these years we have done more than fine with two button mice. Apple has some nice products, but flaws are still inherent with its philosophy.

  1. June 25, 2010 at 7:07 am

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: